Economic and econometric analysis of macroeconomic variables affecting agricultural imports for the period (2004-2024)

• Ayoub Khalil Ibrahim1,Dr.Hashim ata alla abd2

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Abstract:

This study aimed to analyze and measure the impact of macroeconomic variables on agricultural imports in Iraq during the period 2004–2024. This was achieved by examining the current state and trends of agricultural imports and identifying the most significant influencing factors. The study relied on annual Iraqi data and employed descriptive and econometric methods, utilizing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze the short-term and long-term relationships between the variables. Agricultural imports were the dependent variable, while the independent variables included agricultural GDP, national income, population, exchange rate, and inflation rate. The results showed that agricultural imports fluctuated throughout the study period, with a general upward trend. This reflects Iraq's continued reliance on foreign markets to meet a significant portion of its food needs. Furthermore, the study revealed that the increase in imports in certain years, particularly in 2024, was linked to a widening food gap and weak domestic production, coupled with the availability of import capacity supported by oil revenues.The results of the ARDL model confirmed the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between agricultural imports and the studied macroeconomic variables. The results also showed that increased agricultural GDP contributes to reducing imports in the long term, while national income had a significant positive long-term impact. Furthermore, the effects of both the exchange rate and the inflation rate differed between the short and long term.The study recommended strengthening domestic agricultural production, developing agricultural and marketing infrastructure, and achieving economic stability by controlling the exchange rate and inflation rates. This would contribute to reducing dependence on agricultural imports and enhancing food security in Iraq.

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