Assessment of the Link Between Climate Change and Rice Crop Output in Iraq (1995–2022)

• Nuha Mohammad Jead

  Author

     Climatic-change effects on rice output in Iraq in 1995-2022 is studied in this study, which uses annual time series and appropriate econometric methods based on the EViews 10 software to assess the connection between rice production and a number of major climate indicators including temperature, rainfall, relative humidity and wind speed, and how they have been affected over the years and in what proportion the relationship is over short and long horizons. This remains an important issue because the rice crop is very important in terms of economic and agricultural growth and farmers' economic and agricultural output in Iraq, and as well as because it is sensitive to changes in climate in its production and growth, flowering and grain-formation process for rice plants (and climate change affects production.) So the climatic-change effects on rice output and climate change is crucial for agricultural planning and sustainable development in this context.

The year 1995-2022 data for all climatic variables and rice production and the effects of the climatic factors on rice production were used to determine the magnitude and nature of the climate factors on rice output. The observed positive correlation between the rainfall levels and crop yield indicates that the water of rice is sufficient to support the plant's water needs in its different stages of growth. The correlation between wind speed and rice yield is opposite, as high wind speed leads to crop loss of moisture and vegetative and reproductive effects with it, and impacts on production efficiency and grain growth. The results showed that temperature plays a crucial role in rice crop production, and this influence depends on the level of alignment between temperature and the plant's environmental and physiological needs in its different stages of growth. The relative humidity (in the range of the crop's need) is found to be improved in rice production, and it indicates that various climatic factors should be balanced to create the environment within which rice grows and can complete production stages well. To investigate the long-term equilibrium relationship among the factors in study we have used cointegration method to test the long-term relation between climatic factors and rice crop production. The long-term equilibrium relation between climate variables and crop production has been found in the econometric analysis. The impacts of climate change are not restricted to short-term fluctuations in production but rather impact the crop's long-term production direction. Therefore, to improve agriculture adaptation and rice production sustainability, climate variables must be incorporated into the future agricultural policy and strategy in Iraq.