Economic and econometric analysis of the impact of green economy indicators on agricultural development in Iraq for the period 2004-2025

• Ali A. Fadhel1 Mohamad K. Abdallah2

  Author

This study aimed to measure and analyze the economic and econometric impact of green economy indicators on agricultural development in Iraq during the period 2004–2025 using semi-annual time series data, focusing on the role of environmental economics and water resource variables. The study employed an econometric analytical approach using the Autoregressive Distributed Limits (ARDL) model, boundary testing to examine long-run cointegration relationships, and the Error Correction Model (ECM) to analyze short-run dynamics. The empirical results revealed a long-run cointegration relationship among the variables. Gross domestic product (GDP) showed a negative impact on agricultural production due to the Dutch Disease phenomenon and the dominance of the oil rentier sector. Conversely, green GDP, environmental allocations, and water flows from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers demonstrated significant positive impacts on enhancing the long-term sustainability and productivity of agriculture, while agricultural investment allocations showed negative coefficients due to structural imbalances and project management problems. Furthermore, the error correction coefficient indicated that short-term shocks return to equilibrium at an annual rate of 0.23. Based on these findings, the study recommends formulating a national water security strategy, modernizing irrigation systems, and integrating green economy policies and accounts into development plans to support the agricultural sector in Iraq.

• pdf