Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Agricultural Policies on the Wheat Food Gap in Iraq during the Period 1990–2025

• 1Tariq Zeyad. Khalaf

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This study analyzes the determinants of the wheat food gap in Iraq during the period (1990–2025) using modern econometric methods, particularly the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The analysis examines the impact of several explanatory variables, including domestic production, domestic price, world price, and the quantity available for consumption, on the size of the wheat food gap. The research problem arises from the widening gap between domestic production and consumption and the increasing dependence on wheat imports despite the availability of local production potential.The empirical results indicate the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship among the studied variables. Domestic production shows a statistically significant negative effect on the food gap, indicating that increases in local production contribute to reducing the gap. In contrast, domestic price and the quantity available for consumption exhibit a positive relationship with the food gap, suggesting that increases in these variables lead to an expansion of the gap. The results also reveal that the world price does not have a statistically significant direct effect on the wheat food gap in the long run within the Iraqi economy.Furthermore, the estimated error correction coefficient reached (-0.26), reflecting the system’s ability to adjust and return to its long-run equilibrium after short-term fluctuations. This indicates that about 26% of the short-run imbalance is corrected each year, meaning the system requires approximately 3.8 years to restore equilibrium. The study recommends promoting vertical expansion in wheat production and supporting agricultural inputs to reduce domestic production costs.

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