Economic and Econometric Analysis of the Demand for Al-Rayan Chicken in Tikrit District, with Estimation of Price, Income, and Cross Elasticities

• ¹Amer Qusay Sabah ,²Maher M. Shabib

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This study aims to conduct an economic and econometric analysis of the demand for Al-Rayan chicken in Tikrit District by estimating the effects of own price, household income, prices of competing substitutes, and selected behavioral factors on the quantity demanded. The study relied on cross-sectional data collected from a random sample of 300 households in 2024 through a structured questionnaire. The data were analyzed using EViews software, and the demand function was estimated using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method after comparing several functional forms. The double-logarithmic model was selected as the most appropriate specification according to statistical, economic, and econometric criteria. The results showed that the demand for Al-Rayan chicken is relatively price inelastic, with an own-price elasticity of (-0.34), indicating that consumers consider it an essential food commodity within the household consumption basket. The income elasticity reached (0.67), confirming that Al-Rayan chicken represents a normal necessity good rather than a luxury product. The positive cross-price elasticities with imported chicken and Al-Bawadi chicken confirmed the existence of substitution relationships among poultry products in the local market. The findings also revealed that product quality and consumer trust play an important role in influencing consumer demand and strengthening the competitive position of Al-Rayan chicken in Tikrit market. The econometric model demonstrated acceptable statistical and econometric efficiency according to the diagnostic test results. The study concludes that Al-Rayan chicken plays an important role in supporting domestic poultry production and reducing dependence on imported products. The study recommends improving product quality standards, adopting moderate pricing policies, and supporting domestic poultry production to enhance the competitiveness of local poultry products and contribute to food security.

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